By Catherine Pepinster
British Muslim community leaders have embarked on a drive to challenge apathy and disenfranchisement, and get voters registered to cast their ballots in the coming general election. The launch of the Muslim Vote movement, reflecting anger about the situation in Gaza, could have a significant impact on polling. Of Muslim voters, 44 per cent rank the Gaza conflict as one of the five most important issues in the runup to the election.
The British Muslim electorate
Figures from the 2021 Census about religious affiliation show that about four million Muslims live in the England and Wales, that’s 6.5 per cent of the total population. In Scotland the figure is 119,872, representing 2.2 per cent. And in Northern Ireland, the figure for all non-Christian faiths is 5,028, which is 1.5 per cent of the total.
A 2021 survey by the Labour Muslim Network showed 34 per cent of Muslims surveyed did not vote in the May 2021 local elections, an increase of 7 per cent on the 2019 election.
In 2022, The Muslim Census made an online survey of 1,000 people and found 18 per cent would not vote, a rise of 10 per cent on the 2019 election. Of these, one in four of 18-24s said they would not vote.
Some of the reasons given are Islamophobia and disengagement with the government, especially over foreign policy.
Concern that Muslim voters have often stayed at home on election days in the past, out of apathy or a sense of alienation from the British political system, has inspired community leaders once more to embark on a drive to get voters registered and cast their ballots.
According to Zara Mohammed, secretary-general of the Muslim Council of Britain, speaking at a Religion Media Centre briefing, there has been “voter apathy and a disconnect between voters and politicians” in recent years. But now this is changing, she said, thanks to the voter registration drive of organisations like hers.
“Big political parties have quite strained relationships with Muslims,” she said. “There is a real feeling of disenfranchisement right now. People are saying that their votes are taken for granted. A lot of trust needs to be repaired.”
Reaction to the war in Gaza
In November 2023, Labour ordered its MPs not to back a Scottish National Party’s motion for a ceasefire in Gaza, but 56 Labour MPs defied their party’s orders. Labour’s stand provoked anger among Muslim communities.
In December 2023, the Muslim Vote, was set up by several bodies to encourage Muslims to be engaged in politics. It says 2024 is an electoral first, where Muslims can act as one on issues such as Palestine.
Its website slogan says: “Peace in Palestine. Equality in the UK. We are uniting as a community”, which the organisation’s spokesman, Abubakr Nanabawa, says reflects its priorities and those of many Muslims.
“Gaza is among the top four issues for Muslims,” he said, with the others being the cost of living, the state of public services, and the future of the NHS. “A lot of Muslims not only use the NHS, they work in it,” he said.
He said the Muslim Vote was not a party political organisation, but instead “we say to people you are casting votes not just for a party, but for an individual”.
The Muslim Vote argues that with the vast majority of Muslims in Britain living in 80 constituencies — almost all of them are in London, the east and west Midlands, Greater Manchester, Lancashire, and West Yorkshire — they can have a clear impact.
Its website says: “We will no longer tolerate being taken for granted. We are a powerful, united force of four million acting in unison. We are focused on seats where the Muslim vote can influence the outcome. We are here for the long term. In 2024, we will lay the foundations for our community’s political future”.
Impact on the Labour vote
Paul Bickley, head of political engagement of Theos, the think tank that has undertaken substantial research into religious voting patterns, confirms that “Muslims voted substantially for Labour in the past”.
He said research into voting preferences conducted a year ago showed that Muslim support for the Conservatives was at 7 per cent (20 per cent for the general population); at 8 per cent for the Lib Dems (the same for the general population) and 58 per cent for Labour (35 per cent for the general population).
But these figures were compiled long before the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023 which led to the Israeli offensive in Gaza, leaving 35,000 people dead, according to UN figures, of whom just over half are women and children.
A Savanta poll for Hyphen online, conducted in May and June, confirmed that Labour’s standing among British Muslims had dropped from 80 per cent at the last election to 63 per cent now.
The poll showed that 38 per cent of Muslim voters would consider voting for a pro-Palestine independent candidate, but Labour’s advantage on other issues was holding up: 63 per cent would back Labour, 12 per cent Conservatives, 12 per cent Lib Dems, 7 per cent Greens and 5 per cent other candidates.
Ms Mohammed said “there is a lot of charged emotion” — much of it concerning Palestine and the situation in Gaza. And with half of Muslims being under 24, and younger voters among the most distressed over Gaza, their vote could be significant.
Just how much of an effect Muslims can have — and particularly when they are angered by an issue such as Gaza — was highlighted by the Rochdale by-election in March, when George Galloway, standing for the Workers Party of Britain, had a landslide victory, polling 12,335 votes, almost 6,000 more than any other party’s candidate, after he had made his campaign about Gaza.
A similar trend was notable in the May local elections. According to Professor Will Jennings of Southampton University, there was a 17.9 per cent drop in the Labour vote in areas where more than a fifth of people identified as Muslim, which led to the party losing control of Oldham Council in Greater Manchester and losing ground in Blackburn in Lancashire.
Compared with 2021, Labour support among Muslims was down by 21 per cent in 58 local council wards, the BBC said.
“We know that we’ve got a great deal of work to do to rebuild trust with Muslim communities,” said Ellie Reeves, Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator.
In February this year, MPs approved a Labour motion calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire” — but influential voices in the Muslim community remain unconvinced of leader Sir Keir Starmer’s commitment to a ceasefire.
At the time, Ali Milani, the national chairman of the Labour Muslim Network, told The Guardian: “Muslims don’t think that the Labour party broadly values Palestinian and Muslim lives as equal to others.”
Constituencies at risk
The heightened emotions about Gaza and anger over politicians’ responses to the Israel-Gaza crisis, together with the way in which Muslim voters are based in clusters in specific constituencies, means that the Muslim vote could have a significant impact on polling, especially in innercity seats that have previously been Labour strongholds.
The Guardian reports that the Labour party has sent campaigners into 13 seats to bolster support against the risk of losing Muslim voters. These include three of the four Birmingham seats, both Luton seats, and both Bradford seats. They are seats where Muslims make up at least a fifth of the electorate.
The Muslim Vote has identified 92 seats where the population is more than 10 per cent Muslim. The right-wing Henry Jackson Society’s own research on religious diversity in UK constituencies puts the number at 120. But it says it is highly unlikely that Muslims will vote one way.
The Muslim Vote website includes information for voters about constituency candidates and with some, recommendations for who to vote for or against.
No Conservative candidate has been recommended, says Mr Nanabawa, because, he says “they have destroyed infrastructure, the NHS, and young people cannot afford housing”.
Some Labour MPs are not recommended according to their track record on Gaza, and on local issues, he said. In other seats, the Muslim Vote remains neutral.
What issues are important for Muslim voters?
The Savanta poll for Hyphen online conducted in May and June, found that 44 per cent of Muslim voters ranked the Gaza conflict as one of the five most important issues, compared with 12 per cent of the general population. For 21 per cent of Muslim voters it was the most important election issue.
Four of the five biggest issues were the same as the general population — the NHS, the cost of living, the economy, and housing.
Muslims are much less likely to regard immigration as a top five issue — 25 per cent compared with 41 per cent of the UK as a whole. They are more likely to focus on the failures of the system to fairly treat families seeking reunion.
The 10 commitments
The Muslim Council of Britain has issued a list of 10 commitments it is seeking from candidates:
- Promote an inclusive and hate-free society The MCB points to a 335 per cent rise in Islamophobic hate crimes since 2023 and seeks support for opposing racism including Islamophobia, adopting the consensus definition, engaging meaningfully with grassroots Muslim communities (not just government-approved individuals) for enhanced dialogue, and greater uptake of government initiatives such as mosque security funding.
- Uphold international peace and justice The UK should join 146 UN member states in “recognising Palestine, ending the Israeli occupation, and ensuring we are not complicit in the ongoing case of genocide”.
- Provide a better deal for young people The UK must tackle child poverty, give financial support for young people in deprived areas with skills training, mentoring and economic opportunities
- Ensure an inclusive and effective education system A curriculum should be provided to reflect diversity of society, year-round free school meals for low-income families, and student loans must be compliant with Islamic finance for Muslim students.
- Address the cost-of-living crisis Financial assistance and support must be given to families struggling with the cost of living to meet basic needs, with a living wage reflecting the cost of living, and an economy providing job creation in areas of high Muslim populations
- Improve housing and healthcare access Social housing should be increased and overcrowding addressed. There should be equitable healthcare access with targeted interventions for health issues prevalent in Muslim and other minority communities. The government must tackle inequality of care for elderly Muslim communities, particular women, support faith-based organisations in social prescribing and wellbeing work
- Ensure a free, accountable, and diverse media The government must implement Leveson recommendations in full, ensure the BBC board is free from political interference, ensure regulators are equipped to enforce the rules, and ensure a diverse and inclusive media in output and staff
- Champion justice and civil liberties Law enforcement must be fair; unfounded extremism accusations ended against Muslims; the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill scrapped; and fair and responsible immigration policies including resettlement of refugees promoted. Peaceful protest must be allowed, a definition adopted of non-violent extremism that unfairly targets Muslim communities and Palestinian advocacy groups, and a new framework introduced for counterterrorism, and the Prevent programme reviewed.
- Advance climate action and sustainable development The country must pursue net-zero targets by providing government grants for eco-friendly places of worship and investing in green energy, meet net-zero targets, improve public transport, reduce carbon footprints and protect the environment, support more eco-friendly places of worship, and invest in green energy and renewables
- Preserve religious freedom, diversity, and heritage The government should champion the religious rights and heritage of all faith communities by supporting social cohesion and better engagement between with faith and civil society
