By Rosie Dawson
Less than a week ago I texted a journalist colleague to congratulate them on a piece they had written speculating about the possible successor to Justin Welby as Archbishop of Canterbury, the state of the church he was bequeathing them and the challenges they would face.
The expectation then was that the archbishop would retire in January 2026 when he turned 70. But that was before Keith Makin published his long-awaited report into how the church handled revelations about the abuse perpetrated by the barrister John Smyth, whose sadistic beatings of more than a hundred boys and young men spanned decades.
Now, after pressure from survivors, a petition organised by General Synod members and the intervention of a senior bishop, Dr Welby has resigned. His legacy will be reassessed, with his personal failures in dealing with Smyth’s abuse writ large.
The Church of England’s default position is turmoil, but the crisis it now faces cannot be overstated. How might the events of this week affect the deliberations of those responsible for appointing the next Primate of all England?
The Archbishop of Canterbury is not the head of the Church of England — that title belongs to the monarch — but he is its senior bishop and leader. He has an automatic place among the Lords Spiritual in the House of Lords. He is also “first among equals” among the primates of the 42 provinces of the Anglican Communion with its 80 million members. This role has taken up an increasing amount of his time — about 25 per cent according to his own estimate. His own diocese of Canterbury receives much less — about 5 per cent — with most of his responsibilities there assumed by the suffragan Bishop of Dover.
The composition of the Crown Nominations Commission (CNC) that will choose the next archbishop has recently changed to reflect these realities. Until now it had included just one representative from the Anglican Communion. When it meets to begin its deliberations there will be five — one each from Africa, the Americas, Middle East and Asia, Oceania and Europe.
The diocese of Canterbury, which used to have six seats on the commission, has agreed to reduce those to three. The Archbishop of York and another bishop will also serve on the commission, which will be chaired by a government appointee who must be a communicant member of the church. The 17 voting members take part in a secret ballot, and must reach a two-thirds majority in favour of their nominee before their decision is relayed to the prime minister for approval.
News of Justin Welby’s appointment in 2012 came nine months after his predecessor, Rowan Williams, announced his resignation. With Christmas looming, it could be nearly a year before we know who the CNC thinks God might be calling to sit in St Augustine’s chair.
Its members will take soundings from across the Church of England and the worldwide communion, but the divisions within both are so deep and rancorous that finding consensus will prove difficult. Twelve provinces within the Anglican Communion have declared themselves out of fellowship with the Archbishop of Canterbury because of the position the CofE has taken on blessing same-sex relationships. And the CNC itself has recently failed to appoint bishops to the vacant sees of Ely and Carlisle, with differences between its members over the same issue being seen as a likely cause.
Theoretically the new archbishop could come from outside the Church of England. Rowan Williams was Archbishop of the Church in Wales before moving to Canterbury in 2002. Most commentators assume the person will come from within, but go on to note that several senior bishops have less than 10 years to go before their own retirement, arguably leaving them insufficient time in the job. Other bishops are associated with the church’s failure to stop Smyth’s abuse, or have other question marks around their handling of safeguarding. If this rules them out of the running for the top job then the pool of potential candidates begins to look decidedly thin.
Women have been serving as CofE bishops since 2015, and so it is also now possible that one of them could become the next archbishop. This would be hugely problematic, given the conservative nature of parts of the Anglican Communion, not to mention the Church of England, which continues to make special provision for those unable to accept women’s priestly and episcopal ministry. Nevertheless, there will certainly be pressure on the CNC to consider a woman for the position.
The one person whose name consistently crops up in this regard is that of the Bishop of Chelmsford, Guli Francis-Dehqani. As the daughter of a former Iranian bishop, she understands the experience of Anglicans living as a minority in a challenging political environment. Her pastoral approach is seen as an antidote to the managerial style of leadership associated with Dr Welby. On the issue of sexuality, which will inevitably dominate the CNC discussions, she welcomed the General Synod’s decision to provide prayers for same-sex couples in church after a civil marriage or partnership.
There has been much praise from some church quarters this week for the Bishop of Newcastle, Helen-Ann Hartley, who was the only bishop to publicly call on Dr Welby to resign.
Jayne Ozanne, the LGBTQI+ rights campaigner and former General Synod member, told Radio 4’s PM programme that she would like to see her appointed as the next archbishop. Bishop Hartley has the advantage of episcopal experience in another Anglican province, having served as the Bishop of Waikato in New Zealand. But in England she has sometimes cut a lonely figure on the House of Bishops, especially following her decision in February to stand down as one of the two bishops leading the controversial “Living in Love and Faith” (LLF) process.
Custom and practice has it that the job alternates between people from the different theological wings of the church. If the CNC were to choose another evangelical to follow Dr Welby, then one person in the frame is the Bishop of Leicester, Martyn Snow. Born in Indonesia, the son of missionaries, he was Hartley’s co-lead on LLF, and now oversees the process on his own.
One other name to make it onto every pundit’s list is Graham Usher, who, as the Bishop of Norwich, is a regular visitor to Sandringham and played a key role in the coronation service in May 2023. He is in favour of church services for same-sex couples, but is building his reputation globally as the lead bishop on environmental issues.
Today, the bookmakers Ladbrokes have shouting the odds on social media over who will replace Gary Lineker as presenter on Match of the Day, but it can only be a matter of time before they join the discussion about “starting blocks, “runners and riders” and the “race” for Canterbury. According to one newspaper this is a “much coveted” position. Perhaps, but the CNC has a job on its hands — even with God’s guidance.
