By Maira Butt
A new political landscape is emerging from the May council elections for Muslim voters. They are diversifying, moving away from their traditional refuge in the Labour Party, says Abubakr Nanabawa, co-ordinator for the Muslim Vote organisation.
“We no longer live in a two-party democracy,” he added. “We have the rise of Reform, the Greens and independents. There are going to be a number of different options for people to choose from.
“The role of the Muslim Vote as an organisation, hopefully, will be to challenge Reform on their toxic messaging, trying to get a message that can bring the country together, bring the people together. One that is inclusive, not centred on hate but on respecting human rights law, international law, democracy and people’s civil liberties.”
In the May council elections, Labour lost 1,498 seats, Reform UK won 1,452, the Conservatives lost 563, the Greens gained 441 seats, and the Liberal Democrats gained 155. Labour lost control of 38 councils, Reform UK gained 14 councils, the Conservatives lost six councils, the Greens gained five councils, and the Lib Dems gained one council. In 23 councils, no party has overall control.
The Muslim Vote’s analysis of voting patterns has shown a weakening of the “bloc Muslim vote” for Labour, with voters distributed across many parties in response to a rise in their visibility as part of each political party’s policies.
Mr Nanabawa said: “We saw the breakup and death knell of the ‘blanket’ or ‘bloc’ Muslim vote for the Labour Party. We saw the spreading out of Muslim voters across a number of parties, but predominantly Greens, independents and still the Labour Party.
“It was a local council election so the priorities varied wildly from area to area. In Birmingham it would have been bin strikes, in other areas it could be pot holes, local services, closures, mismanagement of services.
“What was important to people was sending a message to the Labour Party that they aren’t satisfied with the way that they are running the country and the way that they have been running their councils for years.”
Muslim voters and the Labour Party have endured a tumultuous relationship over the past few years in the aftermath of Israel’s war on Gaza, considered a priority issue for a significant proportion of the community, particularly after the US and UK’s joint war on terror in Iraq and Afghanistan earlier this century, which caused upheaval across the Middle East and vast swathes of the Muslim world.
Other issues, including Islamophobia, inequality and social welfare, have also caused the rift, and the perception that working-class communities in the north of England have been abandoned.
Mr Nanabawa said: “Muslim voters could be crucial in deciding the outcome of a number of seats and it’s about making sure that they are co-ordinated, making sure that they turn up and vote in line with their principles not just in line with their political party banners, but by each locality who they believe is best for their community and their country.”
But a snapshot survey by Muslim Census is reported to show the leadership of Labour could potentially sway its support. It found that one in five British Muslims would be more likely to vote for Labour under Andy Burnham than Sir Keir Starmer, with 9 per cent being less likely.
Meanwhile, almost 60 per cent of British Muslims would be less likely to vote for Labour under Wes Streeting, 3 per cent being more likely.
There are reports that there were internal Labour Party discussions after the council elections about a perception that Muslims had turned towards the Greens.
“Lots of people were angry at Shabana [Mahmood] and our approach to immigration in general,” one MP told The Guardian. “The Greens were doing a lot of stuff with the mosques, persuading people there they were best placed to defeat Reform,” one Labour source said.
“When progressive voters were looking for a party to coalesce around, persuading the networks in the Muslim community that you were the party best placed to win made a huge difference.”
Support for the Greens has almost doubled since Zack Polanski took up the leadership, according to figures released by the party last year. Even before the May council elections, Yahya Birt, research director at the Ayaan Institute, pointed to the evidence of shifting political alliances among British Muslims.
In February, he told the Religion Media Centre: “Opinion is mixed in the Muslim community. Probably a majority are willing to vote for any party broadly of the left that sticks up for the rights of the community to have a dignified existence that includes being strongly anti-racist, is serious about the rights of Palestinians, and prioritises bread-and-butter issues including the cost-of-living crisis and support for people struggling to pay bills at the end of the month, an issue that cuts across all communities.”
Mr Birt believed that the messaging of Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party, for example, had been “mixed” and may have “disenfranchised and alienated” some Muslim voters.
A perception that Muslims vote as a homogenous “bloc” could be seen as Islamophobic, he added. “What the Muslims are saying now is that you can’t take our vote for granted, you can’t just put it in the bank. You don’t own our vote. This is where you see fragmentation.”
